WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President Donald Trump’s quest for a second time period obtained a lift on Saturday from the cope with the Taliban for a troop pullout from Afghanistan however it might take time – probably years – earlier than all U.S. forces come house from America’s longest conflict.

The fruit of greater than a 12 months of on-and-off talks, the settlement lets Trump declare a serious international coverage success, a prize that has eluded him on North Korea, Venezuela, Iran and different priorities.

The accord, nevertheless, faces quite a few potential obstacles, akin to sabotage by spoilers like dissident Taliban commanders.

And whereas the Republican president or a profitable Democratic challenger within the Nov. Three U.S. election might order a complete pullout earlier than peace is secured, that will danger a Taliban takeover and a resurgence of al Qaeda Islamist militants that might require a brand new U.S. intervention.

“A whole withdrawal of U.S. forces raises the likelihood that Afghanistan will turn out to be one other secure haven for terrorist organizations underneath a Taliban authorities,” stated Seth Jones, a former adviser to U.S. particular forces in Afghanistan with the Middle for Strategic and Worldwide Research thinktank. “The Taliban proceed to have an in depth relationship with al Qaeda.”

The accord signed in Qatar requires a long-planned preliminary drawdown to eight,600 U.S. troops from some 13,000. However it ties additional decreases to the Taliban doing issues they might discover tough, particularly reducing decades-old ties with al Qaeda and different militant teams so deep they embrace inter-marriages.

“Our dedication to behave on the drawdown is tied to Taliban motion on their commitments within the settlement, which embrace intimately the counter-terrorism commitments,” stated a senior Trump administration official, talking on situation of anonymity. “We would be the ones who take a look at what the Taliban do and decide whether or not or not they’re assembly their commitments.”

U.S. officers additionally burdened that the tempo of the drawdown is determined by progress in so-called intra-Afghan peace talks as a result of comply with Saturday’s signing.

“The core commerce, if you’ll, is motion on CT (counter-terrorism) for drawdown,” stated the administration official. “However the settlement additionally calls on them (the Taliban) to enter into negotiations, be critical about these negotiations,” together with searching for an early “complete and everlasting ceasefire.”

Some consultants warn that the peace negotiations – as a result of open in Oslo by March 10 – might drag on for years due to the Afghan events’ profound ideological and political variations.

Even earlier than attending to talks with the Taliban, the nation’s two principal political rivals, President Ashraf Ghani and Chief Govt Abdullah Abdullah, should settle a long-running dispute over which officers, opposition members and civil society activists to call to barter with the insurgents.

That course of was additional difficult final month when each Ghani and Abdullah claimed to have received a disputed Sept. 28 election.

AL QAEDA’S “SHUTTLE DIPLOMACY”

The requirement that the Taliban minimize ties with al Qaeda could also be one of many settlement’s hardest provisions to implement and – for U.S. intelligence – confirm.

Al Qaeda plotted the Sept. 11, 2001, assaults on the US that killed almost 3,000 individuals underneath the safety of Taliban rulers who had been ousted by the next U.S.-led invasion.

Al Qaeda members have married into Taliban households, educated their fighters and revel in safety underneath Pashtun tribal code, consultants say.

A United Nations report in January stated al Qaeda representatives have been shuttling between numerous factions of the Taliban and area commanders, urging them to reject negotiations with the Afghan authorities and promising to extend monetary assist.

“If a peace settlement is reached, al Qaeda intends to develop a brand new narrative to justify persevering with armed battle in Afghanistan,” stated the report, which estimated there are as much as 600 al Qaeda fighters there.

The accord applies solely to Taliban-held territory and never sanctuaries the insurgents have loved for many years in neighboring Pakistan, the place their leaders are believed to keep up ties with al Qaeda and different militants.

A British authorities supply, who spoke on situation of anonymity, doubted the Taliban would utterly break with al Qaeda.

“The Taliban mainly simply need the U.S. out and promise issues that don’t come to fruition to get that,” the British supply stated. “I might be amazed in the event that they disassociated themselves completely and honorably. I might be fairly amazed.”